The New Era of Warfare: Inexpensive Drones, Anti-Drones and Defense Industry inertia

By Babis Papaspyros*

The rapid evolution of drones and their countermeasures has revolutionized modern conflict. From war in Ukraine to operations in the Middle East, small, inexpensive, and improvised drones have become essential tools for both states and non-state actors, including terrorists. Yet, the traditional defense industry has been slow and ineffective in responding, leaving armed forces vulnerable to a new kind of asymmetric threat.
The Asymmetric Threat of Drones
Small FPV drones and kamikaze drones are cost-effective and easy to deploy. Groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and rebels in Syria have utilized commercially available components to create lethal weapons costing just a few thousand euros. These drones can carry out reconnaissance missions or strike high-value targets with remarkable precision.
The U.S. Experience with MQ-9 Reaper and Turkish Bayraktar TB-2s

Even advanced drones like the MQ-9 Reaper and Turkey’s Bayraktar TB-2 have proven vulnerable. Rebels have downed four MQ-9s using conventional air defense systems. 

Given their cost—around $32 million per unit—the loss of an MQ-9 is a significant financial and strategic blow. 

Similarly, dozens of Bayraktar TB-2s acquired by Ukraine have been shot down by Russian air defenses.
The Numbers Game: Thousands of Drones Lost Monthly
In Ukraine, thousands of drones are deployed and destroyed every month. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced plans to supply its forces with over 30,000 long-range attack drones by 2025. These next-generation unmanned aircraft will operate autonomously over great distances, striking enemy targets with high precision.
At the same time, small Ukrainian companies, volunteers, and rebels in other regions are building affordable drones and anti-drone systems, highlighting the dynamic nature of the conflict. These improvised solutions have proven highly effective on the battlefield, providing critical advantages at minimal cost. This should have galvanized defense industries to adapt more rapidly to the changing needs of warfare.
The Disproportionate Cost of Interception
One of the greatest challenges posed by drones is the high cost of intercepting them. Missiles like the Patriot, Arrow, Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), and Evolved Sea Sparrow (ESSM) range from $1 million to $5 million each, often used to destroy drones costing less than €10,000. This asymmetric economic equation reveals the unsustainability of traditional defense systems in countering this new threat.
Why Traditional Anti-Drone Systems Fail
Conventional air defense systems were designed to counter targets like fighter jets and ballistic missiles. Small drones are hard to detect due to their size, low speed, and ability to fly at low altitudes. Current radar systems often struggle to distinguish them from other objects, such as birds, leaving gaps in defensive coverage.
The Need for New Solutions
This new form of warfare demands innovative solutions, such as:

• Electronic Warfare Systems (EW): Using RF receivers to detect drones and jamming signals to neutralize them.
• Smart Radars (e.g., Micro-Doppler): These radars are specifically designed to identify small, low-flying drones, differentiating them from other targets.
• Lasers and High-Powered Microwaves: These systems offer precise and cost-effective options for destroying drones, though they still require further development to reach full operational capability.
• Autonomous Interceptor Drones: These drones can detect and destroy other drones in real-time, creating a dynamic and adaptive defense line.

Why Defense Industries Persist with Expensive Systems
Despite the clear need for flexible and cost-effective solutions, major defense industries continue to focus on expensive systems. This is partly due to long-term contracts and the high profit margins these systems generate. Bureaucratic inertia and political pressures also delay the adoption of new technologies, giving adversaries time to enhance their capabilities.
Conclusion
The widespread use of cheap drones and the inability of traditional systems to effectively counter them have transformed modern warfare. The defense industry must act urgently, investing in new technologies that provide efficient solutions for addressing this asymmetric threat. The wars in Ukraine and Israel offer critical lessons on the necessity of rapid adaptation in an ever-changing environment.

* Ex. Vice President at Hellenic Aerospace Industry SA, Secretary General Hellenic Aerospace & Defense Industries Group