The Somalization of Syria

 It is never easy to predict the outcome of a conflict and especially in a civil war where combat lines and formations are not clear.    The foggy landscape is getting even more complex by the infiltration of foreign mercenaries on either warring side.  It is crystal clear, that there are two kinds of mercenaries.  The cold blooded professionals who leave the country after the fight is over and the fanatic ones who combine, to make a living with promoting their own ideology in the land of their employment.

 

 Let me specify my concern.  Foreign mercenaries fighting Mr Assad in Syria are not in the country just for the money.  Central Asian-Al Qaeda linked Jihadists, north African Salafists, Chechen Islamic terrorists, Balkan (Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) and European Muslim radicals have filled the ranks of the Syrian opposition.  Νevertheles, ordinary Syrians who opposed Assad’s oppressive rule are no match for the well-trained, well equipped and well funded mercenaries.  It is a certainty that the day after Assad, moderate Sunnis in Syria will face the same prosecution with Christian Orthodox, Alawites and the Kurds citizens of the country.  Implementation of the Islamic Law (Shari’ah) is the ultimate goal of all those extremists groups, not only in Syria but in the neighboring countries as well, starting from Lebanon.  

 Moreover, many other countries can be added to the target list of the extreme Sunni Muslim groups.  Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Israel, Cyprus will face troubles if Assad falls without careful planning and implementation of “the day after” strategy.  Simultaneously, there will be only few countries benefited by Assad’s fall. Turkey and the states of the Arab Peninsula.  On the one hand, the Erdogan-Davutoglu duet is eager to eradicate Assad in an effort to promote their neo-ottoman views on Eastern Mediterranean,  on the other hand the Arab States are promoting the extremist groups fighting Assad in order to limit the influence of their main geo-political rival in the area, Iran.  

 Let us turn to Realpolitik though.  The extremist groups fighting Assad are too dangerous to be left to establish their rule in Syria.  As mentioned above Israel and Cyprus are in eminent danger.  Furthermore, the terrorist groups consist a major threat to Europe, Russia and the United States.  The two superpowers and the E.U member states, cannot afford turning Syria into a hornet’s nest, harboring terrorists, a new Iraq or new Afghanistan.  Furthermore, any aerial attack on behalf of the West will be limited, oriented not to weaken Assad too much to cause his removal from power.  The destruction of his WMD arsenal and the weakening of his power is the primary goal of the forming coalition against him, on the pretext of the alleged Chemical Weapons attack in Damascus last week.  At the same time, a secondary goal is the elimination of his Airforce which gives him the advantage in every battle of the two and a half years of conflict in Syria.

 The proposed air campaign will even the forces on Syria, drive more fanatics from both sides on the battlefields and postpone the solution of the civil strife in the country.  A solution which can only be political through negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations.  The aftermath of the prolonged war will leave Syria in ruins and its people in absolute poverty.  Many western strategists talk about “Kosovozation” in their optimistic scenarios about post-Assad Syria. Many other, more pragmatists talk about “Lybiazation” of the country, expressing their concern over the predominance of extremists in Syria.  I, unfortunately, am even more pessimist about the near future.  The ongoing civil war and the possibility of Assad’s removal will lead the country more into the depths of chaos and total anarchy.  Local warlords will impose their will on their territory by violence.  Poverty, refugee camps and civilian deaths will have no ending.  The forced change of power in Syria in favor of the fanatics will lead to the “Somalization” of the country and no one will profit from that conclusion. Not even the Saudis or the Turks who fight Mr Assad and wish his direct removal from power.

Farewell, a long farewell to Syria, my fair province. Thou art an infidel's (enemy's) now.
Peace be with you, O' Syria - what a beautiful land you will be for the enemy.

Emperor Heraclius, after the battle of Yarmouk (636A.D)

Nikos Topouzis, special advisor to

Mr.Terens Quick

Member of the Hellenic Parliament, Head of Foreign Policy on Independent Greeks political Party